MGTC

GENERAL FAQs

What is Malaysia 2050 Carbon Calculator?

The 2050 Calculator is an open source of carbon pathway model for five (5) sectors (energy, industrial processes, waste, agriculture and forestry) until 2050. It will be a scenario-based analysis to outline different possible futures for Malaysian energy system and other non-energy sectors in reducing the GHG emissions.

Is 2050 Carbon Calculator similar with Carbon Footprint Calculator?

No. The 2050 Carbon Calculator is a model that explore a range of possible future scenarios in reducing the GHG emissions. Whereas, the Carbon Footprint Calculator calculates the total greenhouse gas emissions caused by an individual, event, organization, or product.

Why do we develop the 2050 Carbon Calculator?

Developing a transparent dataset and user-friendly interface for presenting the results, can be a useful tool to encourage more policy dialogues among various stakeholders. It can be an educational tool for university students and general public to understand the possible choices of mitigation measures for Malaysia towards achieving a low‐carbon nation by 2050.

The main aims of the calculator are to develop a carbon pathway model tools that help:

To raise the awareness of the policy makers and general public to understand how the choices (technology, behaviours) can impact the climate change.
To increase understanding on how different sectors, interact. For example, energy supply and land use.
To enable dialogue and discussions among various stakeholders- policy makers, ministers, academics, NGOs and the general public.

Malaysia 2050 Carbon Calculator will be built on the modelling framework of the UK Mackay 2100 Calculator.

What the 2050 Carbon Calculator can do and the limitations?

This model can help answer the fundamental questions such as:

What does the low-carbon pathway look like? Can we get to net zero emissions?
How can my sectors contribute to the emissions target? What are the % breakdown?
Which sectors are the one we should focus on? Which are less important?
How much energy can we supply from different energy technologies?
If other sectors remain the same, how much CO2 reduction can be achieved using the most ambitious renewable energy scenarios?
How the choices of mitigation measures affect air quality and land area?
What is the full potential of CO2 reductions in Malaysia?

The diagram below shows what are the calculator can do and does not do.

Who can benefit from Malaysia 2050 Carbon Calculator?

Calculators can be tailored for different audiences. There are currently three main versions developed by UK:

The full model – Built in Excel, this model contains all calculations and assumptions, allowing expert users to examine pathways in detail and to vary options to suit their needs.
The web tool –An interactive and user-friendly web interface that allows users to explore all options in an easy way. The web tool is aimed at policy makers and stakeholders but is also suitable for members of the public who are interested in the subject.
My2050 Calculator – A simplified, game version that is aimed at the general public.

Malaysia 2050 Carbon Calculator will be ready by 2021 and it consists of the full excel simulation model and webtool version.

How the 2050 Carbon Calculator works?

The users will control the webtool model through the selection of 4 ambition level for each lever in each sector to simulate a carbon pathway. The Calculator then displays the implications of the pathway over time, for example, in terms of energy demand, emissions, land use or air quality.

How does other countries use this calculator?

The Indian Calculator, called India Energy Security Scenarios 2047 (IESS), was the first model to be created in-house in the Government of India. The model has been personalised for the country, with more of a focus on energy security than other Calculators. In 2017, the IESS was used in the development of the draft National Energy Policy.
Vietnam used the Calculator for inputs to their Power Development Plan, and are keen to continue to use it in their NDC implementation process.
In Colombia, the Calculator was used to display the results of more complicated modelling on different sectors to promote discussion between government departments during the NDC development process, and ministries have also used the tool to define how they will reduce each sector’s emissions by 20%. Regional versions were also created, so that regional governments could use them in planning their decarbonisation.
Calculators have been used in outreach to bring discussions about energy and climate to more audiences. The South African government created a version aimed at school children, designed to work on low bandwidth internet. BEIS funding supported teacher training to promote its use.

Who else is using or developing a 2050 Calculator?

There are more than 10 countries that has built their own 2050 Calculators and additional 2050 Global Calculator. While, several more countries are work in progress in developing the country level calculators including Malaysia and Thailand.

TECHNICAL FAQs

Is the 2050 Calculator an optimisation model (like MARKAL)?

No. The Calculator is fundamentally different from cost optimisation models such as MARKAL. MARKAL examine the costs of different technologies and work out the least cost pathway to achieving an emissions reduction target.

It is possible to identify low cost pathways using the Calculator, but the user has to do this manually through an iterative process.

What makes the Calculator approach different with other models?

Several features of Calculator approach are as follows:

Includes all energy and all emissions brings all your options into one place and can include implications for land use, air quality and energy security.
Easy to use can be used by policy makers, ministers, academics, NGOs and the general public provides a common language.
Accessible, Open and transparent built in excel, published online with all assumptions documented, and expert stakeholders consulted during the build process.

Economics vs engineering

The Calculator is not policy prescriptive. Many energy models are based on economics. They look at what effect changing prices, demand or supply could have on the market and, in turn, what the optimal energy system would be under the circumstances. Economic models use complex equations and assumptions about the behaviour of individuals and firms. They are sometimes called ‘black box’ models because inputs go in and outputs come out, but it is not clear what is happening in the middle because they are so complicated. This means that typically only a few experts can properly use them, and consequently, trust is low.

The Calculator is based more on engineering and physics than on economic forces. Users choose from a range of options for the future without really needing to consider the set of circumstances that would cause them to come about. It avoids assumptions about what motivates behaviour and instead allows the user to see what the direct impact of changing behaviour would be. It is about what is possible, not what is probable.
Open and transparent

The Calculator also differs from most system models in that it is as simple as possible, but no simpler. The full models of Calculators have been published online, so anyone with an interest can explore how they work and examine the assumptions used. Because the basic model is built using Excel, which is widely used all over the world, users can get answers without the need for specialist training or waiting days for results.

The Calculator methodology also encourages transparency with stakeholders, actively consulting them at every stage of the design process. This means that the finished Calculators are more accurate and therefore trusted.

Many countries are using several models to elaborate and debate their energy or climate strategies. The differences of the calculator and other models are summarised in the table below:

	2050 Calculator	Optimisation Model
Scope	- Energy + non-energy GHG emissions sources/sinks (agriculture, Land-use,)	- Energy only
What it typically covers	- The development of low carbon scenarios in a dynamic model covering all GHG - Realistic and transparent assumptions - An open and transparent online version - The engagement of a wide group of experts (to define assumptions + for testing) - The identification of the technical trade-offs, and of timing implications - A clear view on the direct system cost implications (capex/opex/fuels)	- Optimisation based on costs reaching a partial equilibrium, e.g. based on cost which is attractive to make fact-based decisions - Definition of “ideal scenario” - Cost/energy projections - Detailed modelling of cost-energy feedback loops
What it does not cover	- Scenarios are not projections - No choice of an ideal scenario - The model does not optimize on costs - There is no macro-economic analysis, nor a view on social implications Co-benefits are not included, nor the economic impact of climate change	- Allow wide range of stakeholders to simulate and debate pathways - Transparency on underlying assumptions and model. Risk of misinterpretation

The Figure here below maps the most famous energy models in terms of sector detail, sectors detailed interactions and transparency. As one can see, the BEIS (UK) 2050 calculators appear as an excellent compromise between these dimensions.

How the 2050 calculators complement to other models?

There are countries that use the Calculator model as an input for another model. For example, the energy calculator of India Energy Security Scenarios 2047 has been used an input for MESSAGEix model.

In UK, the input on low cost pathway from MARKAL model are incorporated in the Calculator to produce other pathways.

References

The information above are based on source of references as follows:

Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS UK) - Click Link
Mott MacDonald
Climact
Imperial College of London - Click Link

Resources & InformationFrequently Asked Questions (FAQs)